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Mark Clifford

UKMO Contingency Planners Guidance for Summer 2018

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Hey, I was just reading Gavin Partridge's analysis on the Contingency Planners Guidance for Summer 2018 (May 2018). It makes for some interesting reading. I have pasted it below for convenience. Full CPG can be found at http://bit.ly/2LdZKJS 

 

-Start-

 

The headline from this months update is that the UK Met Office is predicting a warmer than average summary. The headline says this:

 

"For June, and for June-July-August as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures." 

 

The context part of the guidance adds more "flesh to the bones" in terms of why UKMO are making this forecast.... 

 

"The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase (neither El Nino nor La Nina), which is expected to continue during the outlook period. As a result, it will have very little influence on conditions over the UK in the coming months. Sea surface temperatures to the west of the UK in the Northern North Atlantic Ocean are currently below average. This moderately increases the chances of high pressure and above-average temperatures over Northern Europe. Sea surface temperatures close to the UK have recovered due to recent warm weather, so are unlikely to have an effect on the 3-month period overall."

 

"For June, long-range prediction systems from centres around the world show mixed signals. Overall, the chances of high- or low pressure systems being more prevalent are fairly balanced. As a result, temperatures in June are only slightly more likely to be above average than below average. This is consistent with conditions in recent years, which have tended to be warmer than the 1981-2010 reference period.

 

For June-July-August, the Met Office long-range prediction system, along with predictions from other centres around the world, shows a slightly increased chance of high-pressure patterns across the UK compared to normal. The likelihood of above-average temperatures is greater than usual."

 

So a very interesting temperature prediction with the chance of both a warmer than average June and a warmer than average Summer during 2018 with high pressure expected to be close to the UK.

 

If we do indeed get an anticyclone setting up near the UK can we expect a drier than average Summer? The precipitation section of the guidance tells us with the "headline" summary saying this:

 

"For both June and June-July-August as a whole, below-average precipitation is more likely than above-average precipitation" 

 

So as well as a warmer than average Summer a wetter than average is confirmed by UKMO with the "context" part of the guidance adding more detail...

 

"The summer period is one of the driest times of year across the UK with more showery and localised precipitation. This often leads to more regional variability. The predictability of UK precipitation is thought to be lower than in winter because there are generally few large-scale global factors that influence weather patterns across Northern Europe in summer. No specific type of weather pattern appears more likely than usual across the UK in June. As a result, long-range prediction systems give fairly balanced probabilities of above- and below-average rainfall for June, with only a slight increase in the likelihood of drier-than-average conditions." 

 

"For June-July-August, the Met Office long-range prediction system, along with systems from other prediction centres, shows an increased likelihood of high pressure compared to normal. As a result, below-average precipitation is moderately more likely than above-average precipitation." 

 

They do however finish with a final word of caution

 

"Nevertheless, a wet summer, while less probable than usual, remains a realistic possibility." 

 

So a VERY interesting forecast with high pressure set to bring a warmer and drier than average Summer to the UK - Something we haven't had for a very long time.

 

Could Summer 2018 be one of the best Summer's of the decade? 

 

-End- 

 

Waiting eagerly for next months update of the UKMO Contingency Planners Guidance. But what do you think?  

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There is not a bloody chance we're going to get a decent Summer. 

 

I always think that when we have early warmth in Spring our Summer will be poor... 

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