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Mark Clifford

Winter 2018/19 Early Thoughts

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12 hours ago, hernebayphotos said:

Yeah. Even 3°C with heavy winds does my head in.

me to 

during the BFTE the migraines i suffered were ridiculous ,it didn't  even let me concentrate on watching the snow fall!

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4 hours ago, KushPatel said:

me to 

during the BFTE the migraines i suffered were ridiculous ,it didn't  even let me concentrate on watching the snow fall!

Yeah. Migraines don't really affect me when inside but outside in the cold. Crumbs, I don't know how I'd keep still.

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No offence intended but I cannot understand how you can get headaches from cold weather. Hot weather yes. 

Anywho, any more winter checklists out there? Would be interested to hear what you're wishing for this year... 

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2 hours ago, Mark Clifford said:

No offence intended but I cannot understand how you can get headaches from cold weather. Hot weather yes. 

Anywho, any more winter checklists out there? Would be interested to hear what you're wishing for this year... 

Well, I mean when. You're outside and it's freezing and your head starts hurting. And when you go inside it doesn't stop.

That's what I mean Mark.

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4 minutes ago, Mark Clifford said:

Crikey! We have developments with Siberian snow cover. Kicking off early?

DlN6b_tXsAA_VBy.jpg

It's the start. 😀

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If my theories are correct and the models verify with the appearance of a fairly strong Siberian High at the start of September then expect this snow cover season to become fast with its extent into Eurasia and be a big one.

OZqv8TR.png

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12 minutes ago, Sryan Bruen said:

If my theories are correct and the models verify with the appearance of a fairly strong Siberian High at the start of September then expect this snow cover season to become fast with its extent into Eurasia and be a big one.

OZqv8TR.png

Hi Sryan 😊😊😊

Hope your right!!!

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On 19/08/2018 at 16:33, Mark Clifford said:

There's been quite a lotta chat on social media about winter already mentioning the QBO, Solar Minimum, El Nino’ in the Pacific and Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in the Atlantic. Most, if not all look like they are going to contribute to favourable conditions. Of course it is far too early to be confident about anything and signals could, and probably will change between now and then. 

So, what are YOUR thoughts for Winter 2018/19? ⛄ ❄️ 🌨️

Hi Mark...I reckon no matter how everything aligns, you can still end up with an opposite result! Call it the butterfly effect or whatever.

All we can really do is give odds, that said, I've been saying for years the winter's are likely to get colder for the next few.

The odds are stacking in the favour of those who enjoy cold/snow. Maybe something spectacular will occur even?? 🤔

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56 minutes ago, Mark Clifford said:

Anybody here watch GavsWeatherVids? He starts looking at winter from 2nd September. 

Highly recommend! 

I've always heard of him but have neglected to watch his weather videos. Might do that now.

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58 minutes ago, Mark Clifford said:

Anybody here watch GavsWeatherVids? He starts looking at winter from 2nd September. 

Highly recommend! 

Yes I have since Autumn 2016. I do my own updates on Boards.ie weather forum (now my blog too) including information that he would share. I will share the updates here.

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I have worked on some percentages of seeing the likelihood for Winters of different periods of solar activity to be colder than average. I also added in a table containing all these Winters for good measure and interest. I used the CET for the Winter mean temperatures (because it's the only dataset that goes back to solar cycle 1) and as this is based on the Central England region, remember there would be variety over the UK and Ireland in these Winters. 

I used the 1981-2010 average (which is 4.5c for the CET) to decide if a Winter is cold or not for the percentages. I'd like to give the disclaimer that we have a sample space of only 24 years for each solar activity period. Also,  there is no correlation with solar activity and the CET - though there is correlation with increased northern blocking.

Just before - 67% chance of being cold
Minimum - 79% chance of being cold
Just after - 71% chance of being cold

These are very high percentages for chance, unusually so. There's some interesting things here, I've found. First is the fact that going by the percentages, solar minimum provides the highest chance for a cold Winter though they're all reasonably close to each other so not big deviations. Nevertheless, solar minimum has the best chance which is different to what I estimated.

The bottom two columns of the table show the number of times that Winter was the coldest of the period (I also highlighted the coldest Winters of each period in blue) and the overall CET mean combining the Winters. There's more interesting things here. Just after solar minimum has had the highest number of coldest Winters for the periods but solar minimum has the coldest mean CET even though the number of times it was the coldest Winter is the smallest.

So basically, I was somewhat off with my estimate (which was the just after solar minimum Winter to have the highest chance of being cold) and that the solar minimum Winter has the highest chance of being cold. 2018-19 is highly likely to be the solar minimum Winter so this is intriguing.

744083241_Solaractivitycorrelation.PNG.848551dfe37a5ceda3c344917b0685fd.PNG

Data comes from SILSO and the UK Met Office.

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Again just for fun but the CanSIPS model is similar in ways to the ECM charts I showed earlier in this thread. Very blocked January and February if this were to come off with extreme cold potential. January looks to be very northeasterly and similar in vein to December 2010 whilst February looks very easterly (opens up the opportunities for some Beast from the East type events). December looks to be a changeable month and is kinda laying the groundwork; see the Siberian High.

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If you go by history, the best chances for a cold Winter is an unsettled September but there have been settled Septembers followed by cold Winters. You don't have to go back far to find an example of such - 2009. 

For the sake of this, I'm gonna use the England & Wales Precipitation (EWP) and Central England Temperature (CET) datasets because they have data going back to the period I want to look back to. Let's look at the EWP for the Septembers that preceded notably cold Winters or Winters that stand out to people (back to 1870) and the CETs for those Winters. Remember that the 1981-2010 EWP average for September is 77.2mm whilst the 1981-2010 CET average for Winter (December to February) is 4.5c.

In our sample space here, I have chosen 49 different years and out of 49, 27 of those years contained a wet September (for the EWP anyway, there would be some wetter and drier Septembers elsewhere like in Ireland or Scotland for example where 1985 was wet compared to the EWP series) which is just over half of the number of the years in the sample space so there's not really much correlation with an unsettled or settled September for the EWP and a cold Winter though it is interesting, three of the most severe since 1940, 1946-47, 1962-63 and 1981-82 were preceded by wet Septembers. 

I looked at unsettled Septembers for last year's Winter and I found there is an increased chance of a colder Winter for 2017/18 because of this. We had a colder Winter indeed so that turned out rather well.

MtRKpx5.png.3d20628f67fb57c667bedc216cd4dbfb.png

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With the Polar Vortex weak and very disrupted, it makes blocking easier to occur around the Arctic (also higher chances of SSW events). There would be the possibility of seeing similar charts to this if it were to verify by later November or December to February.

1654152421_archives-2018-2-28-12-0(4).png.4676a4ee22a8d7ce498503853b3710e8.png

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What a beast of charts these are from the ECM seasonal model update for September 2018. You can see the winds are full on easterly. Just for fun.

8M8CI6Y.png.8e2e42daa9d318128635d3357dc96f2a.png

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